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11권 2호_ 김광진_북한경제의 달러화와 김정일 '궁정경제'

2007년 11권 2호. 북한경제의 달러화와 김정일 '궁정경제' _ 김광진


초록 보기

Dollarization and dependence on hard currency for Kim Jong Il, north korean economy and the people is more than serious now. The world already experienced Kim Jong Il`s ``pertinacity`` to getting back frozen 25million dollars at BDA, Macau., even not hesitating to show up with failed atomic bomb test. With a new government in South Korea, the south-north relationship is passing through temporary adjustment period and hundreds of thousands of food aid is stopped for a few months, but the rumor is at rampant that a massive starvation is about to break out in North Korea. This is only a case showing North Korea`s dependence on outside. It makes quite anxious to know how the present economic situation and rehabilitation ability is for them and why they can not survive even several months without outside help. For correct diagnosis of this, it`s needed to look into economic structure, foreign dependence and serious dollarization. The main focus of discussion here is on dollarization. There are 2 kinds in dollarization of economy; one is by government`s active involvement through foreign exchange, monetary and foreign economic policy and the other is natural process by market itself as a result of economic downfall, steep devaluation of national currency, increased outside dependence and expanding black market economy. The situation in Peru in mid 90`s is for former case. As for North Korea, it was propelled by ``Royal Court Economy`` which was set up and expanded by Kim Jong Il and this case is not exactly by government policy. The devastated people`s economy run by cabinet, its increased outside dependence, deepening reliance of formal economy and citizens on market by its expansion, rapidly growing 2nd economy and steep fall of ``WON`` is another reason. Kim Jong Il himself and market affected both in a mixed way. Independence of munitions industry in 1972 from cabinet by setting up ``Committee of Economy No. 2`` and growing up economic sector at party with a start of ``Bureau 39`` in 1974 formed up ``Royal Court Economy`` which is military-industrial complex. It became the direct source of Kim Jong Il`s ruling finance and began to serve solely for munitions industry and system`s safeguard. Structured mainly for foreign trade and hard currency earning, it has eaten out people`s economy, becoming a group or conglomerate and now occupy 40-60% of the total national economy. Its expansion and running by Dollar kicked up more serious dollarization of economy. Now almost all the nation`s hard currency income is made and overtaken by this economic sector. Its current asset is 248 times more than people`s economy. This is the main obstacle to rehabilitation of people`s economy. The economic sector run by cabinet extracted to 45% scale in late 90`s, the peak of hardship, as compared with the level of late 80`s when steep fall began. This brought increased outside dependence, growing market and exploding 2nd economy. For survival, citizens were forced into the market rather than relying on state distribution. At the same time, value of ``WON`` fell 20 times for 5-6 years since it was devalued to market level in 2002 which was called ``7.1 measure.`` All these accelerated objection of national currency, increased possession of dollar and black market transactions which makes dollarization extreme. Now it is not too much to say that north korean economy is ``dollar economy,`` or ``hard currency economy``. Inflow of outside assistance and dollar at present economic structure means direct inflow into Royal Court Economy,`` the military-industrial complex. The rehabilitation of north korean economy is only possible when people`s economy, the key industries revive. At the moment, the monopoly of hard currency by ``Royal Court Economy`` and its priority in resource distribution blocks this way. This is the main reason why North Korea can not stand on itself even though a vast amount of aid was input into the state for past 10 years. Of course, food, fertilizer and heavy oil aid for consuming purpose might be another reason but this is only an excuse. Some say that on a condition one can not change the present system from outside, it can be a pretty smart way to make use of ``Royal Court Economy`` sector as motivating force in changing North Korea by letting them taste market economy, which has freer access to outside world. It is sure that the employees in this sector has better ability and skill, and in future they will play the major role in leading change, for they have more frequent contact with outside, better information and understanding of market mechanism. This imposes us another difficult task of choosing how to look at ``Royal Court Economy`` and how to handle them.


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138. 2007년11권2호_북한경제의달러화와김정일'궁정경제'_김광진
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