12권 1호_ 서양원_화폐통합이론과 남북한에의 적용

2008년 12권 1호. 화폐통합이론과 남북한에의 적용 _ 서양원


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The Theory of Optimum Currency Area(OCA) pioneered by Robert Mundell could be applied to inter-Korean monetary unification. In terms of methodology, South and North Korea may consider two ways to achieve monetary unification: EU-style gradual union or rapid unification like what happened in Germany. However, the two Koreas appear to be placed in a situation in which both states would likely pursue a mixed method. Though the two states are pursuing a gradual unification at the moment, the two societies also need to be prepared for a sudden change of situation in which circumstances would dictate a rapid monetary unification. The kernel of the Korean monetary unification process would be to create a single currency and have a central bank manage it generally. As far as the single currency problem is concerned, it could be said that the two Koreas would be advised to unify their currency into the South Korean won and set a conversion ratio for the two currencies properly. This article attempts to discern the most appropriate conversion ratios for the South Korean won and the North Korean won based on several important priorities: Reducing unemployment in North Korea; Maintaining North Korean export competitiveness; Restraining North Korean emigration to South Korea; and Easing North Korean inflation. However, the ratios would keep changing with international politics as well as the economic situation in both Koreas, with inter-Korean trade and other forms of economic cooperation. The important issue is that the officials would have to take political, social and other conditions of their countries into consideration and make decisions from an economic point of view. That way, the two Koreas would maintain sustainable growth rates after monetary unification. In order to make an economic judgment, South Korea will need to review its North Korea policies that would help foster an inter-Korean exchange market. Perhaps the two currencies would be traded unofficially in the initial stage. However, an inter-Korean exchange market would function as a real market that would evaluate the value of the currencies later. South Korea could also consider creating financial goods related to the North Korean growth rate to attract public and private investment from foreign countries, as well as domestic capital, as part of South Korean efforts to minimize the financial cost and other negative after effects of inter-Korean unification.

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143. 2008년12권1호_화폐통합이론과남북한에의적용_서양원
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