2008년 12권 2호. 북한붕괴론의 어제와 오늘 _ 이상근
In the mid-1990s, the prediction of North Korea`s collapse had been widely spread because of Kim Il Sung`s death and the shattered economy of the country. The prediction was erroneous because of the collapsists`` insufficient understanding of the unique political system and leadership of North Korea. The prediction reemerged in the mid-2000s since North Korea confronted the U.S. and faced economic sanctions from the international community. The returned collapsists insist that their analyses in the 1990s were correct and the misguided economic assistance policy by North Korea`s neighbors made the collapse averted. This article argues that the collapsists in the 2000s have been making mistakes similar to those made in the 1990s. First of all; the collapsists ignore North Korea`s crisis management system under the leadership of its military leaders, so that they predict the regime collapse triggered by Kim Jong Il`s death. This prediction recalls their underestimation of Kim Jong Il`s power base and assertion of North Korea`s collapse in several years after Kim Ii Sung`s death. Also, the collapsists in the 2000s warn the neighboring countries, without considering North Korea`s growing market economy, that the famine and exodus would occur again. Some collapsists even suggest active measures to induce the collapse of the North Korean regime. These measures would only strengthen the unsociability and antagonism of the North. For the correct prediction of the future of North Korea, the collapsist arguments in the 1990s should be closely reexamined first.