2009년 13권 1호. 러시아의 대북정책 변화와 전망 _ 연현식
Moscow was a crucial client or supporter of Pyongyang regime during the Cold War period. But in the post-Cold War period, Yeltsin`s Russian Federation developed relations with South Korea. Subsequently, the Moscow-Pyongyang relationship was frozen and become worsened. The rapprochment of Russia-North Korea relations came in 2000 when Putin replaces Yeltsin. Putin hoped to regain lost influence on Korean affairs by reestablishing ties with Pyongyang. And Pyongyang might have hoped that Russia`s assistance would help them restore the economy. But Russian market economy situation leaves little room for Soviet style sponsorship. The U.S. was not eager to see Russia as a member of the multilateral talks on the North Korean nuclear problem. Only North Korean insistence who obviously wanted a counter-balance to China won Moscow its place at the table. Nevertheless, Russia does not maintain a unilaterally pro-Pyongyang position. Russia`s priority in Korean peninsula is stability-preventing an increase of tensions. North Korea`s nuclear and missile programs raised and raise several potential contingencies that Russia might face. Therefore, Russia strongly opposes North Korean nuclear and missile tests. In the framework of the Six-Party Talks, as Russia-Chinese consultation has progressed considerably over the last years, Russia expects the same ones in the Russia-U.S. coordination. The North Korea is eager to normalize relations with the U.S., if only to preserve its independence by balancing off growing Chinese influence. Russia supports a possible U.S.-North Korean rapprochement. But Russia feels that the danger of North Korea becoming a Chinese client is a more realistic dilemma. Given the relative weakness of Moscow`s positions in Korean peninsula, good neighborly relations with both Koreas would help Russia use the Korean factor to balance off the influence of China and Japan and even strengthen its position in the dialogue with the U.S.