2006년 10권 2호. Demographic Development in Eastern Germany after Unification _ Bernhard Koeppen
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East Germany`s demographic development is marked by permanently low birth rates, an excess of deaths, extensive (region-to-region) emigration, low immigration and a continued rise in life expectancy. Due to this situation, the population of the so called "Neue Laender" (New Federal States of Eastern Germany) is ageing and shrinking. Socio-structural changes and an increase of spatial disparities on regional as well as on national level, are the consequence. This situation leads to rather negative future prospects for those already now negatively affected regions. Today, demographic change does affect not only Eastern Germany, but is worse there than in the West as changes occurred rather unexpected and fast. Looking back, many processes which had been experienced in the years since German unification, seem consistent and even somewhat predictable. On the other hand, precariousness on the one side, "unification-euphoria" on the other hand and the lack of experience with such a unique incident as the unification and the collapse of East- and Central-European socialism, did hinder and occlude a sober and always sequentially analysis of demographic, socio-economic and societal processes in the New Federal States. This must be kept in mind if one thinks about a possible Korean unification process or at least closer approach with a more permeable border-regime. Especially North-South-Migration is very likely to become an important and problematic key-issue.
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