2008년 12권 2호. '선군정치'시대의 북한 권력구도와 정치변동 가능성 _ 차두현
There has been a debate on Kim Join-Il`s disorder since September 9 2008 when he was absent from North Korea`s 60th anniversary ceremony. This debate, however, raises more fundamental questions than the possibility of Kim Jong-Il`s disorder itself: Could Kim Jong-Il`s personal trouble really invite serious political instability in North Korea? What is the implication of ``contingency``-such as implosion and/or explosion -of North Korea? Which political system and power structure would North Korea establish after Kim Jong-Il? First and foremost, It is important to understand that Kim Jong-Il`s personal trouble or death is not the trigger of abrupt political change in North Korea by itself, but an accident. Post-Kim Jong Il era would involve more possibility of profound political change than current stage, given the characteristic of North Korean politics-unadaptable political system made from long-standing dictatorship, distorted party-military relation under the ``Military-first policy``, and sustaining economic difficulty. At the same time, however, the ``Military-first policy`` has given a safety belt to North Korea that can prevent the abrupt power vacuum. So the ``contingency`` of North Korea needs to be managed as a mid-/long-term ``process`` rather than short-term accident such as Kim Jong Il`s disorder. We should also review some conventional thoughts on the analysis of North Korean politics: The nonexistence of designated successor amplifies latent risk in North Korea. The future of North Korean political system depends on the personal characteristic of specific political leader. Although the ``Military-first policy`` has distorted traditional party-military relations, it has also contributed to institutionalize North Korean political system. By that reason, North Korean might restore political stability in some cases even after Kim Jong-Il`s death regardless the specific political leader. It is also important for South Korea to prepare the internationalization of North Korean contingency. If the contingency of North Korea would once break out and the involvement/intervention of neighboring countries and international organizations, It would better to cooperate with them(especially with the U.S.) for sharing information and diplomatic/military resources.