2009년 13권 1호. 북핵 관련 남북한, 미국의 3자관계와 대북정책 방향 _ 박종철
After the inauguration of the Obama administration, negotiations on North Korea`s nuclear development and U.S.-North Korean relations will proceed according to the following five stages. The first stage is to implement the October 3 statement based on the September 19 statement of the six-party talks. In the second stage, North Korea will accept the abandonment of her nuclear program, inspection of nuclear activities, improvement of human rights in return for diplomatic normalization between Washington and Pyongyang. In the fourth stage, North Korea will dismantle her nuclear programs and surrender her nuclear materials and nuclear weapons together with the holding of a summit meeting between Washington and Pyongyang. This meeting will be accompanied by aid to North Korea from international financial institutions. In the fifth and final stage, North Korea will fully abandon nuclear materials and nuclear weapons and a new peace treaty on the Korean peninsula will be concluded. In sum, despite many difficulties, the U.S.-North Korean negotiations are able to proceed to the second stage. However, from the third stage, the U.S.-North Korean negotiations will face difficulties concerning the abandonment of nuclear weapons, diplomatic normalization, and the reform of North Korea`s system. South Korea`s first challenge is to link the nuclear problem and inter-Korean relations. One option is to partially link the two issues, improving inter-Korean relations in accordance with progress in the nuclear negotiations. It is undesirable and impractical to set up denuclearization as the precondition of inter-Korean relations. Likewise, it is also impractical to separate inter-Korean relations from the denuclearization process. South Korea`s second challenge is how to harmonize inter-Korean relations with those of U.S.-North Korean relations. South Korea concerns herself with the possibility of improving the U.S.-North Korean relations in the face of the continuing stalemate in inter-Korean relations. This will reduce Seoul`s position in its relations with the U.S. and North Korea and curtail her freedom of maneuver and initiative in handling general Korean peninsula issues. To prevent this situation, U.S.-South Korean coordination is necessary. South Korea and the U.S. should consult at various government levels and utilize their diverse contacts through both the 1.5 track and civilian track. Washington and Seoul should have common positions about the denuclearization process, security guarantees for North Korea, economic compensation, and so on. Considering this situation, South Korea`s policy towards North Korea should be one of selective engagement. This is to maintain the basic outline of engagement while arranging economic aid and cooperation in accordance with the progress of negotiations with t he North and t he changes in North Korea`s position. The policy of selective engagement values principle and universal standards while managing the Korean peninsula situation and improving inter-Korean relations. In order to encourage or elicit a positive response from the North, the following measures need to be considered. First, formal and informal high-level contacts between Seoul and Pyongyang are advisable. High-level inter-Korean meetings will discuss Seoul`s North Korea policy, a new framework of inter-Korean relations, denuclearization, and other pending issues. Second, the two Koreas should take steps towards confidence building measures to create a favorable environment for inter-Korean dialogue. Third, the two documents of the inter-Korean summit meetings, the 6.15 statement and the 10.4 statement, should be given greater prominence. The two Koreas should discuss the implementation process in detail considering feasibility, economic resources, and popular support. Fourth, humanitarian aid can be a starting point to resume an inter-Korean dialogue. Fifth, policies for establishing a peace regime on the Korean peninsula should be prepared.